Economist Warns of Unsustainable Agricultural Spending

Economist Warns of Unsustainable Agricultural SSpending. At the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA) Budget Review, Agricultural and Trade Economist Dr. Howard Sigwele cautioned that continued public investment in agriculture without corresponding productivity gains is fiscally unsustainable.

Dr. Sigwele noted that agriculture has been allocated 6 percent of the development budget, reflecting its designation as a high-impact sector. However, he emphasized that the sector’s performance remains weak and has not delivered the expected outcomes in diversification, employment creation, or food security.

He highlighted Botswana’s persistent struggle to meet the African Union’s Malabo Declaration targets. The country has never achieved the 6 percent annual average growth rate in Agricultural GDP set under the framework, instead recording less than half of that benchmark in most years.

Cereal yields were also identified as a major concern. While the Malabo target calls for two tonnes per hectare, Botswana averages under 500 kilogrammes per hectare. Only a few commercial farms in Pandamatenga and Mosisedi approach higher yields, but they represent a small fraction of cultivated land.

Dr. Sigwele stressed that without a structural shift in productivity across the sector, the current trajectory of public spending risks becoming unsustainable. He warned that simply increasing allocations will not resolve underlying inefficiencies and could undermine fiscal stability.

“The challenge is not the level of investment, but the returns on that investment,” he said, underscoring the need for reforms that address productivity constraints.

His remarks add weight to ongoing debates about the role of agriculture in Botswana’s economic strategy. As policymakers consider future budgets, the call for structural transformation in agriculture is likely to remain central to discussions on achieving long-term growth and resilience.