Natural Diamond Market Shows Early Signs of Stabilisation in 2026

Natural Diamond Market Shows Early Signs of Stabilisation in 2026. The global natural diamond market is showing early signs of stabilisation in 2026, with tighter supply and improving price momentum supporting market conditions, according to Lucara Diamond Corp.’s Q2 2026 results report.

Global natural diamond production is forecast at approximately 100 million carats this year, significantly below the more than 150 million carats produced less than a decade ago.

Lucara attributed the decline in production to the depletion of legacy mines, limited new discoveries and the suspension or closure of several operations across the industry.

The report also points to differences in performance across the diamond market, describing the recovery as “K-shaped”. Larger, rarer and higher-value diamonds are performing more strongly, while smaller commercial stones continue to experience pricing pressure.

According to the report, constrained supply and resilient demand are supporting higher-value diamonds. At the same time, smaller categories remain under pressure as the market continues to adjust.

Price movements are also showing signs of improvement across both rough and polished diamond markets. Lucara said these developments suggest that market conditions could be beginning to stabilise following a prolonged downturn.

However, the company identified several challenges that continue to affect the sector. Macroeconomic uncertainty remains a concern, while declining prices for lab-grown diamonds are adding pressure, particularly in price-sensitive market segments.

The differing performance between natural and lab-grown diamonds remains an important factor for the industry as producers and other participants respond to changing market conditions.

Despite these challenges, Lucara said the combination of tightening natural diamond supply, improving market sentiment and emerging price momentum provides a more positive outlook for the remainder of 2026.